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ON SHAKY GROUND

The earthquake hazard here may be greater than you think. And planning for it is less than you'd expect.

There are mysteries in southeast Missouri that have drawn state geologist David Hoffman here time and again. What makes this place different, sets it apart from the rest of the planet, is an upheaval that occurred eons ago, when the earth was younger and more rambunctious. The theory is that hundreds of millions of years in the past, the North American continent tried to rip itself apart here, creating a rift in the earth's crust. The resulting depression allowed the Gulf of Mexico to extend hundreds of miles northward into what is now southern Illinois. As the sea receded, the Mississippi and Ohio rivers formed.

State geologist David Hoffman in the Benton Hills, where he has investigated seismic activity.
Jennifer Silverberg
State geologist David Hoffman in the Benton Hills, where he has investigated seismic activity.

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Driving south on Interstate 55 past Cape Girardeau, Hoffman tells how the course of the Mississippi subsequently changed, for unknown reasons. "Back there where we just passed the airport, (the Mississippi) used to go to the west," says Hoffman. "Now it cuts through here just south of Cape Girardeau at a place called Thebes Gap and joins the Ohio down at Cairo, Ill." He has by now entered the Benton Hills, steering his Ford Taurus across a five-mile-wide forested incline reminiscent of the Ozark Plateau. Enigmatic in their own right, the gentle slopes seem to have become somehow separated from the pack, leaving them marooned as a remote series of elevations in the otherwise flat expanse of alluvial plain.

The Benton Hills, Hoffman explains, are an isolated segment of Crowley's Ridge, which runs down to Helena, Ark., a distance of about 200 miles. Why the river abandoned its original path more than 11,000 years ago and carved its way through 100 feet of bedrock so it could flow to the east of Crowley's Ridge is the subject of scientific speculation, as are the origins of the ridge itself.

"It's a very strange formation," Hoffman says. "The traditional explanation is that it's just an erosion element that the river left there. I find that hard to accept. It may have been formed by earthquake-related activity."

For nearly half of his 20-year stint with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources (DNR), Hoffman has been an earthquake specialist in the Division of Geology and Land Survey. On this day, he is carrying the tools of his trade in the trunk of his car: geological charts, work boots and a hoe. With his graying flattop and aviator glasses, Hoffman looks more like a high-school teacher than a haughty scientist, and when he talks about the Benton Hills, he sounds more like an awestruck student.

Hoffman's hypothesis that earthquakes helped form these hills is supported by his own field research. Beginning in 1993, he supervised the excavation of more than a dozen 15-foot-deep trenches in the uplands near Commerce, Mo. The digs uncovered folds in the soil strata showing that seismic activity occurred here in the past. This evidence leads him to believe that the faults in the area remain active.

Hoffman's opinion is bolstered by other seismic authorities, who acknowledge that much remains to be learned about the area's subterranean history. Despite these affirmations, the minimal amount of research funding for the Benton Hills project has been curtailed.

Hoffman's pursuit raises the probability of earthquake activity at an obscure location. But the one recognized cataclysmic source in the state is the New Madrid seismic zone, a 120-mile-long system of faults that traverses the Missouri Bootheel and cuts across five adjacent state lines. And, indications are, that fault system may be more restless than previously thought.

On the basis of its latest mapping efforts, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) issued projections that increase the estimated earthquake hazard for parts of the St. Louis area by 30-40 percent. That dire caveat has been followed by an insurance-industry request to the state to raise earthquake-coverage premiums by as much as 266 percent. The proposed rate hike is based on the industry's own analysis of the latest scientific data -- which point to a significantly increased probability of a damaging earthquake's striking the region.

In the face of this clear evidence, government spending on seismic research and emergency preparedness has nonetheless remained stagnant and, in some instances, has been drastically slashed. The one exception to the rule came last week, when the Missouri Department of Transportation asked for a $32 million increase in the cost of seismically retrofitting the elevated sections of Highway 40 (Interstate 64) downtown, raising the project's cost to more than $65 million. By contrast, the total federal allocation for all types of disaster preparedness in the state of Missouri, the city of St. Louis and St. Louis County amounts to about $300,000 this year. As for the official recommendations of the Missouri Seismic Safety Commission, they are buried under an avalanche of indifference.

Meanwhile, development of the vulnerable floodplains -- Chesterfield being a prime example -- continues unabated.

Geology students call it "the Beach." Located in Pemiscot County, Mo., near the town of Deering, the 136-acre strand is purported to be the largest sand boil in the world, a vestige of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812. Aerial photographs of the Missouri Bootheel show similar geologic formations throughout the fault zone. Underground pressure associated with the seismic disturbance created tiny volcanoes, which belched up a mixture of sand, mud and water.

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  • Belin 03/09/2012 8:46:00 PM

    You missed a largely populated area in the danger zone of the New Madrid Fault. Jonesboro, AR. People in this area would really like to know the ramifications of an earthquake in reference to this city. It's really hard to find any.

  • 11/06/2011 10:14:00 PM

    That is soo true. I grew up in South Arkansas near Texarkana and was told by several of my elders that the big quake that happened in the early 1800's *1811-1812* also changed the course of the red river in the area creating several of the lakes that I grew up fishing on. Been in awe of the New Madrid fault line ever since. Back in 1996 there was a scare going around that the fault was about to shift within that year and I was on a list of MANY in the south Arkansas are that were on stand by to help if it did. I have now moved to south central Missouri *Howell County* and have felt a few shakes since moving up here. They haven't bothered me too much. What does is my job. I work out on the Mississippi river. After looking at the recent earthquakes for sever states around the Missouri bootheel I have noticed that there are quite a few on or at the river itself. Just hope I'm home if anything major does happen.

  • 09/17/2011 1:08:00 AM

    I would like to see the data of planetary alignments (not just the moon and earth and sun) on the dates of the 1811 and 1812, I have a feeling there may have been comet activity in the heavens as well. My research of recent tsunamis and large earthquakes seem to be in direct connection with the magnetic fields of certain planets (Venus, Mercury for the most part) in line with earth and the sun. . My guess is somewhere on earth, there is going to be a devestating earthquake, tsunami or volcano between the days of Sept 25-27th 2011. I live in MO, which the New Madrid makes me a bit nervous. I am praying it hits some uninhabitted area of earth.

  • Cindy S. 06/07/2011 6:03:00 PM

    Lends credibility to the 3.9 earthquake that residents of the St. Louis area felt today (6/7/11). I personally logged on to the USGS web site at 3:10am, to log my experience; I happened to be wide awake for this one. There was a large boom sound, thought someone had driven their vehicle into my house, or something had exploded, but hey, the experts say, that it is unlikely that we could ever experience anything like a California quake here. They're right; I think that it will probably be a lot worse than we could ever have imagined. I just got earthquake coverage for my home, good timing on my part, egh?

  • 04/01/2011 5:25:00 PM

    good story,terrible ending...

  • Godinez Cinthia 01/04/2011 12:41:00 AM

    i luv pie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • diana 06/08/2010 11:09:00 AM

    Just found this article and thought it very insightful and well written! I would really be interested in updates of any kind concerning Crowley's Ridge in AR and Reelfoot Lake in TN. My grandmother's family were part of the group that traveled from Kentucky and TN to AR during the forced removal of the Cherokee. I'm over 50 and as a child I remember her telling me stories she remembered hearing about the "big" shaking. She passed away in the mid 80's when she was in her 90's. I wished I had asked her more! And then came our son's story which was so funny it was kinda sad. When my son (now 33) was about 10 years old, he came home and said everyone at school had to have a bag of survival stuff to keep at school for the big quake predicted, oh about 1989 or 90...! His Dad and I laughed about it and didn't give it a second thought until our young son cried that night that he would be the only one who wouldn't survive if we didn't "pack" his school "suggested" list into a bag and send it to school! We only lived one mile from the school at the foot of the Ozarks hills. But... we packed him a good bag and sent it to school...and the poor kid somewhat relaxed. Now our daughter lives in Memphis and I have made sure she knows she needs to have water and supplies packed away safely to ready her family for the big "shake!" When we visit her there, I'm glad when I get across the bridge and over toward Cordova TN! I think she takes it very lightly...and I'm the one now who is feeling the "need" to prepare. I have prepared the best I can...because I won't be waiting on FEMA! or Uncle Sam. In Northeast Ar...it isn't unusual at all to feel tremors once in a while. So, people it is better to be ready than sorry. But, I'm of the generation that remembers getting under our desks at school, to drill for the "bomb raids!" I'm a little worried about those 30 and under...they will panic if Wal-Mart isn't restocked!

  • toroca 02/28/2010 11:42:00 AM

    What scares me the most about the New Madrid Zone is how widely the big quakes there are felt. A previous commenter mentioned churchbells in the east; indeed, the big quakes in 1811 and 1812 were ALL strong enough to ring churchbells in New York and Boston, and were strong enough to break crockery in those same cities. A quake the size of the largest of the four 1811 and 1812 quakes would effectively be felt from the Rockies to the east coast, and from the Gulf of Mexico into southern Canada. Major damage would afflict numerous major cities, with Memphis, St. Louis, and Nashville probably being under the greatest risk. However, damage would be widespread and should be expected throughout most of the central, southeast, and midwestern part of the US. Hurricane Katrina was NOTHING compared to what an 8.0 on the New Madrid fault will do to this country.

  • Xtina 03/27/2008 9:20:00 AM

    RFT, I would love to see an update to this article soon - it is excellent and covers an extremely important issue and it would be good to know what is going on with funding and monitoring the fault. I have been watching seismic activity for the last few years and am very concerned about what I see. In the last few years, along the New Madrid Fault, there have been problems with gas pipes and mining operations and bridges - just a few days ago two bridges across the Mississippi River were closed down for structural strain - these are warnings! We need to pay attention to what is happening. Also, I have made an observation on more than one occassion that I would love to run by a seismologist: I have noted that in recent years, before there is seismic activity in a given area there is extemely anomalous weather. I noticed this in the UK and in Oregon as well as a few other places in the Pacific Rim, which has been quite active lately with much higher mags than have occurred in a long time. Is there some association between anomalous weather and seismic activity? Thanks again for an excellent article.

  • Walt 12/10/2007 12:43:00 PM

    Your artical was well written. There are no doubts a major quake will hit the area again soon however no one will listen or heed warnings till its to late. We live well outside the New Madrid zone on Olivers Praire in south western, Mo. and have felt small tremmors for some time which feel like a quarry shot but there are non around. We can only hope there aren't paralell faults or another unknown fault running under our back yard. It's best to prepare for a disaster and have nothing happen then to not prepare and have somthing happen. Best of luck and keep up the good work

  • lyric 10/01/2007 11:16:00 AM

    A few years ago a scaremonger predicted an earthquake in the Madrid fault structure and it was a national news hit. My sister in Mich wanted me to come up there for safety but I figure that Nashville will be a hub of activity in the event of an earthquake. Our city would need everyone it has to help. I know that Memphis has also started to build somewhat earthquake proof structures but I believe that they face the same problems as St Louis. As for the insurance companies we've already seen that they can't be trusted to pay out, just look at how many people from Catrina still haven't received settlements. It would truly be a waste of money to have the government supplement insurance as they would be paying out to help displaced people in an event anyway because the insurance companies wouldn't honor their policies. In the late 70's I felt tremors while living in northeast Miss, 90 miles from Memphis, so I have first hand experience and that was a small one. During that quake I was told that the quake that made the Reelfoot lakes caused church bells to ring in the east, Philadelphia I believe. That in my opinion is a no joke situation. Be prepared people, I too believe it will come and when it does it has the capability of being more serious than anyone wants to imagine. I really liked this article, it's very hard to tell of probable danger without sounding like a scaremonger in which case you would lessen credibility. No one wants to think of the possibilities. Thank you and good luck getting the word out.

  • beth 06/26/2007 7:54:00 PM

    I very much enjoyed this article. I have always been interested in the area around Reelfoot Lake. I live pretty close. I would love to see the professionals at a dig in this area. If you need volunteers I would be interested. Thank you. Beth

 
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