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Tuesday, March 9, 2010

The Cards' Two-Man Race By the Numbers

Posted By on Tue, Mar 9, 2010 at 10:08 AM

click to enlarge I should feel bad about using such a goofy picture of Rich Hill. However, I do not. - COMMONS.WIKIMEDIA.ORG
  • commons.wikimedia.org
  • I should feel bad about using such a goofy picture of Rich Hill. However, I do not.
Going into spring training, I was really excited to see how the battle for the fifth and final spot in the Cardinals' rotation was going to shake out. Jaime Garcia, Rich Hill, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, even Kyle McClellan was going to get a shot. It was going to be really exciting checking the box scores every day to see which hurler had finagled himself a knife's edge advantage. 

Of course, the reality of spring training competitions then set in, and the whole thing suddenly became much, much less interesting. Garcia needs to have his workload monitored, so he'll start out in Memphis. Boggs is probably better in the bullpen (which I wholeheartedly agree with, but still), and Blake Hawksworth gave Dave Duncan the wam fuzzies last year working in relief. Both of them will either make the club out of the 'pen or not at all, it appears. So it's a two man race between Kyle "Duncan Loves Me" McClellan, aka K-Mac, aka Kylie MacNogue, aka Big Daddy French Toast, and Rich "Don't Call me Blass" Hill. Sure, they're probably the two best choices anyway, but it takes so much of the fun out of things. 

A bit of fifth starter numerical masturbation for your reading pleasure. 

0: The number of games started by Kyle McCellan in the last three years. 

0: The number of games started by Kyle McClellan at the big league level. 

0: Number of games started by Kyle McClellan at any level of baseball which requires more than one 'A' to describe it. 

In other words, Kyle McClellan has never been a starter at any advanced level of baseball, and hasn't started a game at any level since 2007. How much should that worry you? Well, it depends. Maybe a little, maybe a lot, depending on what you think of K-Mac in other ways. 

18: Number of games started by Rich Hill at the major league level the last two seasons. 

17: Number of games started by Rich Hill in the minors the last two seasons. 

Well, at least you can say Hill has been there before. Not recently, necessarily, but before. On the other hand, you could say he's paid his dues, also; who doesn't love a story about the guy with the once-golden arm who's wandered in the wilderness trying to find his way to the show. Then, again, this isn't "8 Mile". Never mind. 
click to enlarge Don't feel bad about using such a goofy photo of McClellan, either.
  • Don't feel bad about using such a goofy photo of McClellan, either.
7.80: Rich Hill's ERA in 2009 with the Baltimore Orioles. 

3.38: K-Mac's ERA in 2009 with the Cardinals. 

5.21: Rich Hill's FIP in 2009 with the O's. 

3.96: K-Mac's FIP in 2009 with the Cards. 

.343: Rich Hill's Batting Average on Balls in Play in 2009. 

.275: McClellan's BABIP in 2009. (League average for pitchers is .290-.300ish)

56.5%: Rich Hill's strand percentage in 2009. 

75.2%: Kyle McClellan's strand percentage in 2009. 

Lots of interesting stuff here. Looking at K-Mac's performance and the underlying numbers, it's pretty clear he wasn't inordinately lucky or unlucky on balls in play, he stranded a pretty normal percentage of runners (72% is about the norm; 75% isn't high enough to really send up a red flag), and thus his FIP isn't really that far out of line from his ERA. To use quite possibly the worst sporting cliche of all time, Kyle McClellan is what he is. 

Rich Hill, on the other hand, was hugely unlucky on balls in play and in stranding runners. Of course, he also gave up a fair amount of hard contact, but not enough to account for a BABIP that high. He stranded over fifteen percent less runners than the league average last year, a number which almost has to move toward the mean. (Here's a nice, fairly simple explanation of how strand rate works.) In short, Rich Hill was very, very bad last year, but he was also very, very unlucky on top of being bad. He has definite room to improve. 

Hill's numbers are on the following page...

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